This is one of my favorite write-ups. Bumble should frame your quotes in their office in bee-yellow: "Cutting 240 jobs to pay yourself a bigger bonus is not what I’d call moral management." "Most people who take a sabbatical aren’t given $9M in equity upon their return." Do you really think Bumble's tax assets are worth $247.5M? Bumble will not pay zero tax going forward. It will pay 15% or 12.6% due to OECD's Pillar Two treatment and Side by Side safe harbor, regardless of any tax assets. Bumble paid cash taxes of $18M and $29M in 2024 and 2025 (income tax provision - deferred income tax from CFO). This supports that Bumble will not be tax-free going forward. Assuming that Bumble can save 8.4% in tax (21% - 12.6%), and Bumble income is $145M, 11 years, that's only $134M. Much less than $247.5M. Did Blackstone and Whitney self-deal and sell this uncertain future benefit at the expense of shareholders? I don't know. "You don’t become the youngest self made female billionaire by not looking out for yourself." I'd rather they collect the benefit in the future, together with the rest of the shareholders. Want to know your thoughts about the hidden tax assets. Still an interesting opportunity, though. By the way, AI said that the $186 million payment serves as a "complete and full termination" of all of Bumble's payment obligations, explicitly covering past, current, and future obligations.
Bumbles executive compensation tables are definitely a problem, Lidiane Jones received 23.5M for her short stint as CEO. If you are going to pay exorbitant dilutive compensation tie it to performance and make sure the talent is worth it. I imagine the optics of retaining female leadership played a role.
Bumble will remain effectively tax free in the US for the foreseeable future, paying negligible state taxes. Interest expense currently negates a lot of the US taxes before applying DTAs / NOLs. Bumble's overseas subsidiaries are the source of their tax payments. The new 2026 safe harbor changes will lower their overseas taxes in 2026 ~10M-15M compared to 2025 where they accrued top-up taxes of 12.6M (due 2027) but likely still higher than the rates they enjoyed before Pillar Two.
Excluding top-up they paid $13,896,000 in taxes in 2025. $0 Federal and $166k State. The rest was 920k Germany / 3,830k Brazil / 9,077 UK / (98k) refund on all other foreign taxes.
If I timed the bottom it was luck, earning are a crapshoot. We'll see where we are in a year but the margin expansion thesis is playing out nicely, added 1% to EBITDA margins from alternative billing last quarter. Which is impressive considering they began that initiative in December and in 3 months converted more than half of IOS payments in the US to Apple Pay. Margins should be stellar Q1 even with the increase in marketing spend. My base DCF assumes a return to modest growth by Q4 2027, if they can do it sooner despite the growth of Hinge and Facebook dating then today's fair value of $15.80 is too modest.
This is one of my favorite write-ups. Bumble should frame your quotes in their office in bee-yellow: "Cutting 240 jobs to pay yourself a bigger bonus is not what I’d call moral management." "Most people who take a sabbatical aren’t given $9M in equity upon their return." Do you really think Bumble's tax assets are worth $247.5M? Bumble will not pay zero tax going forward. It will pay 15% or 12.6% due to OECD's Pillar Two treatment and Side by Side safe harbor, regardless of any tax assets. Bumble paid cash taxes of $18M and $29M in 2024 and 2025 (income tax provision - deferred income tax from CFO). This supports that Bumble will not be tax-free going forward. Assuming that Bumble can save 8.4% in tax (21% - 12.6%), and Bumble income is $145M, 11 years, that's only $134M. Much less than $247.5M. Did Blackstone and Whitney self-deal and sell this uncertain future benefit at the expense of shareholders? I don't know. "You don’t become the youngest self made female billionaire by not looking out for yourself." I'd rather they collect the benefit in the future, together with the rest of the shareholders. Want to know your thoughts about the hidden tax assets. Still an interesting opportunity, though. By the way, AI said that the $186 million payment serves as a "complete and full termination" of all of Bumble's payment obligations, explicitly covering past, current, and future obligations.
Bumbles executive compensation tables are definitely a problem, Lidiane Jones received 23.5M for her short stint as CEO. If you are going to pay exorbitant dilutive compensation tie it to performance and make sure the talent is worth it. I imagine the optics of retaining female leadership played a role.
Bumble will remain effectively tax free in the US for the foreseeable future, paying negligible state taxes. Interest expense currently negates a lot of the US taxes before applying DTAs / NOLs. Bumble's overseas subsidiaries are the source of their tax payments. The new 2026 safe harbor changes will lower their overseas taxes in 2026 ~10M-15M compared to 2025 where they accrued top-up taxes of 12.6M (due 2027) but likely still higher than the rates they enjoyed before Pillar Two.
Excluding top-up they paid $13,896,000 in taxes in 2025. $0 Federal and $166k State. The rest was 920k Germany / 3,830k Brazil / 9,077 UK / (98k) refund on all other foreign taxes.
Impressive timing
If I timed the bottom it was luck, earning are a crapshoot. We'll see where we are in a year but the margin expansion thesis is playing out nicely, added 1% to EBITDA margins from alternative billing last quarter. Which is impressive considering they began that initiative in December and in 3 months converted more than half of IOS payments in the US to Apple Pay. Margins should be stellar Q1 even with the increase in marketing spend. My base DCF assumes a return to modest growth by Q4 2027, if they can do it sooner despite the growth of Hinge and Facebook dating then today's fair value of $15.80 is too modest.